Athena News Brief – 17th Jan 2025

  • Petrol Production At Dangote Refinery Affecting European Market — OPEC

The Dangote Refinery, launched in 2023, has significantly impacted global fuel markets, reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products and affecting Europe’s gasoline exports. According to OPEC, the refinery’s output is reshaping international fuel flows as Nigeria begins local refining of diesel, petrol, and aviation fuel. The $20 billion facility, operating at 350,000 barrels per day and targeting 650,000 barrels by year-end, marks a pivotal step toward energy self-sufficiency in Africa’s most populous nation. Read more

Athena Commentary: The Dangote Refinery’s impact on Nigeria’s fuel market highlights a significant shift, reducing reliance on imports. However, the country’s ongoing energy challenges, including high petrol prices and inadequate electricity supply, contrast with nations that have functional and efficient refineries. In better countries, like the US and Saudi Arabia, refineries are well-maintained, ensuring energy security and stable fuel prices. Furthermore, these countries have robust infrastructure and energy policies that minimise volatility. Nigeria’s refinery is a step forward, but comprehensive reforms in energy policy, infrastructure, and subsidy management are necessary to align with global standards and improve citizens’ welfare.

  • IGP canvasses removal of police from envelope budgetary regime

The Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, has urged the removal of the Nigeria Police Force from the restrictive envelope budgetary system during his 2025 budget defence. He called for increased funding flexibility, a Special Operations Account for emergencies, and better allocations for overheads and capital projects. The IGP also proposed constructing new zonal headquarters, boosting tactical units, and improving police training institutions. Read more

Athena Commentary: The Inspector-General’s call to remove the Nigeria Police Force from the envelope budget system is vital but long overdue. In advanced countries, police budgets are carefully tailored to meet operational needs, emphasising proactive funding for training, technology, and infrastructure. For instance, nations like the UK and Germany ensure dedicated emergency funds and robust capital investment in security. Nigeria’s rigid budget system often stifles effectiveness, leading to inadequate resources and delayed responses.

  • Governors reject increase in VAT

The Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) has backed proposed tax reform bills while rejecting a VAT increase. Following a meeting with the presidential tax reform committee, the governors recommended a revised VAT sharing formula: 50% by equality, 30% by derivation, and 20% by population. They opposed higher VAT rates or reduced Corporate Income Tax (CIT), citing economic stability. Read more

Athena Commentary: The Nigeria Governors’ Forum’s call for equitable VAT sharing and tax reform is a step forward but highlights broader issues. In advanced countries, tax systems are streamlined, transparent, and heavily reliant on technology, ensuring fair distribution and minimal evasion. VAT rates are stable, and exemptions for essentials balance revenue with citizens’ welfare. In Nigeria, reliance on outdated systems creates inefficiencies and inequities.

  • INEC removes 7,746 deceased voters from national register

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) removed 7,746 deceased voters from Nigeria’s voter register as of December 2022 to ensure accuracy. However, challenges persist due to poor official death records. INEC also used biometric systems to remove over 2.7 million invalid registrations. Despite these efforts, voter turnout dropped to 27.5% in 2023 from 35.6% in 2019, partly due to an inflated voter register. Read more

Athena Commentary: INEC’s efforts to clean Nigeria’s voter register are commendable but highlight systemic gaps. In advanced democracies, robust civil registration systems ensure real-time updates of voter rolls, including automatic removal of deceased individuals. Countries like Sweden and Canada link electoral databases with national identity systems, making the process seamless. To improve, Nigeria must invest in integrated data systems, collaborate with relevant agencies, and foster public trust in the electoral process to boost participation.

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